John Paul Barton – University of Pittsburgh
Wednesday, April 22, 2026
Zoom opens: 10:30AM EDT
Seminar begins: 10:45AM EDT
Statistical models to interpret and predict pathogen evolution
Pathogen evolution is complex. Viruses must mutate constantly to escape from human immune responses that would otherwise prevent infection, all the while preserving their ability to enter cells, replicate, and efficiently transmit from person to person. Do we need similarly complex models to understand their behavior? In this talk, I’ll describe how we can combine simple models with methods from statistical physics to both interpret and predict virus evolution, with a particular focus on influenza.