Uri Alon - Weizmann Institute
Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Zoom opens: 10:30AM EDT
Seminar begins: 10:45AM EDT
Why is the upper tail of human lifespan so rigid? Insights from Langevin threshold-crossing models of aging
Human life expectancy has doubled over the last two centuries, yet the upper tail of human lifespan has barely moved. Why is median lifespan so plastic while extreme longevity remains so rigid? I will present a stochastic threshold-crossing view of aging, in which physiological damage follows time-dependent Langevin dynamics and death occurs as a first-passage event across a critical threshold. In this framework, the exponential increase in mortality with age corresponds to escape from a linearly declining barrier. The model separates two classes of parameters: **robustness parameters**, such as noise amplitude and threshold height, which affect the probability of crossing the barrier, and **senogenic parameters**, which govern the deterministic damage production and removal. Changes in robustness can improve median survival while preserving extreme-lifespan distributions, whereas changes in senogenic parameters shift extreme longevity. I will discuss how this distinction helps interpret historical mortality improvements, lifestyle and socioeconomic effects, which all seem to only affect robustness parameters, as well as familial longevity, and progeroid diseases.